Could health care initiative pass SACRAMENTO Frustrated by opposition in the Legislature, nhl jerseys Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger wants to take his health care plan to "the people" next year in the form of a sweeping ballot measure. But if recent ballot initiative history is any guide, it s almost certain to fail. Any health Moncler Branson down jackets Women dark purple care referendum is bound to draw deep pocketed opposition and be exceedingly complex two problems that, time and again, have spelled defeat at the ballot box. A Mercury News review of the 107 initiatives that have appeared on the California ballot since 1998 underscores how daunting a campaign on health care reform would be. Only nine of those measures passed when opponents spent at least million, according to campaign finance records. But in five of those success stories, the initiative s backers outspent opponents by at least 2 to 1. The remaining measures featured popular, easy Moncler Kids girl down coats with hood zip purple to digest causes, such as increasing tobacco taxes for child development programs and requiring that all public school classes be taught in English. Going back 15 years, voters have rejected the past five attempts to reform the health care system. Four of those measures embraced populist ideas regulating HMOs and forcing businesses to offer health insurance. "I don t think it has a chance," said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University and expert in initiative politics, when asked about Schwarzenegger s ballot box strategy. "He wants to do something really big moncler men coats and leave a legacy, but it ignores initiative history. The money spent against ballot measures is among the best investment in politics. Add to that the "T" word taxes and the "C" word complexity Moncler Kid Clairy Down Sleeveless Vest Black and things get messy really quickly." To some, the governor s refusal to consider more modest reforms ones that would sidestep the perilous initiative process or at least provoke less of a fight raise questions about his political judgment. It was only two years ago when a confident Schwarzenegger took a package of reform measures to voters and was soundly defeated. Schwarzenegger, Moncler k2 down Vest Women Multiple logo deep red of course, believes if anyone is suited to buck precedent, it s him. Aside from the 2005 fiasco, he boasts a solid record of ballot box success. With voters growing increasingly anxious about health care and the presidential candidates focusing attention on the issue, the governor believes he has a decent shot. "Governor Schwarzenegger was not elected to make decisions based on political calculations and special interest threats," said his spokesman, Adam Mendelsohn. "Everyone recognizes it would be a difficult campaign, but it s a debate Californians are eager to have. People s frustration with the health care system is at an all time high." Beth Capell, a lobbyist for the consumer group Health Access who s worked on multiple health care ballot campaigns, said she still believes the right initiative could pass. Reformers moncler darlan have learned a lot from those campaigns, she said, noting that the last attempt in 2004 failed only narrowly. That measure, Proposition 72, would have upheld a mandate on many businesses to provide insurance. "We know a lot more now about how to do this than we did in the 90s," Capell said. Schwarzenegger s gambit would certainly be unique, and it s impossible to draw a precise parallel from past ballot measures. But history does offer some guide of how long the odds would be. One lesson is that naysayers have a distinct advantage, particularly when they spend even modest sums to sow doubts in voters minds. The measures that pass are typically ones with little or no opposition: Of the 61 measures that have been approved over the past decade, 42 had no money going against them, and nine others had less than million in "no" money, according to campaign records. Another is that voters are loath to raise taxes, even when they target unpopular industries for popular causes. Last year alone, voters snubbed three proposals to raise taxes on tobacco companies, oil producers and wealthy people. The measures would have propped up hospital finances, funded research on clean energy, and paid for universal preschool. Schwarzenegger s plan includes an industry supported tax on hospital revenues and a requirement for employers to either provide insurance or pay into a state pool, which opponents Moncler down Coats Men Hooded mid-length Military green consider a tax. Democrats have suggested a cigarette tax increase, but the governor so far has not embraced it. A third lesson is that simple, populist messages have the best chance of overcoming monied opposition. Complicated initiatives provide openings for opponents to distort or poke holes in a them creating enough confusion that voters choose the safety of a no vote and the status quo. The complexity of health care makes it nearly impossible to distill into concise campaign messages, let alone to shield from distortions. One group has already aired radio spots in Sacramento blasting the governor s plan as a " billion government run bureaucracy" that would steal money from schools and public safety and force people out of their private insurance. In reality, Schwarzenegger s plan maintains the role of private insurers, and he insists it will not affect the state general fund. But initiative campaigns are the enemy of nuanced debate. Sacramento political consultant Rick Claussen, who has helped opponents beat back several health care initiatives since the 1990s, said he doubts it would turn out differently next year. The problem with thrusting health care reform upon voters, he said, is that many people fear that change will threaten their own coverage, or cost them money messages sure to be hammered home by opponents. "Most voters have health care," he said, "and are happy with what they have." Which is another daunting challenge: In the face of such easy opposition messages, Schwarzenegger must convince those who already have insurance that his plan is good for them, too, and not just the uninsured. Still, Schwarzenegger didn t have much choice but to go beyond the Legislature and take it to "the people." Such a comprehensive plan requires taxes and that requires Republican support moncler pharrell in the Legislature, which isn t there. Assembly Minority Leader Mike Villines, R Fresno, has tried to persuade Schwarzenegger to push for more modest reforms, such as helping people with pre existing conditions obtain coverage or insuring more children. "You can take bite size steps and really help a lot of people, instead of trying to do it all at once and losing," Villines said he told the governor, in so many words. Schwarzenegger wanted none of it

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